Progress Report

Using the previously described setup, I have been making numerus paper trades to try and analyze the results. I am definitely not ready for active trading yet. My probability of for a win [p(W)] was only 0.42. I calculated my Win/Loss ratio value which was negative @ -0.93. I do not mind keeping my p(W) that low, though it would make things harder, but I need to turn profits before I go live. Ideally, I want to know I can cover the costs of some of the tools I will need.

Which is bringing me to a bottleneck because my TeleChart trial expires, it will be more difficult to paper trade and try different scans and pcfs.

Since I cannot find a trial for MetaStock, I may have to buy it for a month to try it. Than decide on the final tool used and subscribe prior to going live to finish setting up my strategy.

 

0 Thoughts on “Progress Report

  1. Stop Loss;

    I am interested in your work with TC2007…I have been using metastock and elders governor program and indicatrors for metastaock too. I just signed up for TC2007 and was looking for some formulars. Are you still happy with the one you made, I would like to try it and have you tried anything else.

    MIke

  2. So far I’m satisfied with TC2007. I really wanted to try MetaStock but they don’t have a very good trial program. How do you like MetaStock? Do you use Reuters’ real-time of end-of-day data or you have your own source? I still would very much like to give it a try with “Dr. Elder’s Trading Room” add-on.

    Currently, I have two main Scans: one for longs and one for shorts. The long scan combines three PCFs:

    The first is the “Weekly” screen, which compares the MACD bar today with the MACD bar a week ago:

    (XAVGC26 – XAVGC12) – (XAVGC26.4 – XAVGC12.4) > 0 has to be true.

    I have experimented with a simple check of the EMA slope [(XAVGC13 – XAVGC13.4) > 0] but so far, I like the results with the MACD bar better. Next I check the Force Index as my “Daily” screen:

    ((((V * (C – C1)) + (V1 * (C1 – C2))) / 2) < 0) AND ((((V1 * (C1 - C2)) + (V2 * (C2 - C3))) / 2) > 0) had to be true.

    I plan on trying various daily screens, using different indicators. Finaly I filter noise out with a simple volume filter:

    (AVGV126 > 1000) AND (V1 > AVGV63)

    So far, it has given me anywhere from 20 to 100 charts every night. You have to then read the charts yourself and figure out which ones interest you. Once flagged, you wait for the price to go cross over your trigger, which I set to the prior day’s high.

    For shorts, you reverse the Weekly and Daily screens and leave the volume filter as is. Once flagged, you wait for the price to cross below your trigger (set a the prior day’s low).

    *DISCLAIMER* None of that has been back tested or extensivly tested. I’ve been running this setup while ironing out other details of my trading (my journal and other tools) so watch out and do you own tests and research.

    I also have other PCFs I use once in a while to go scanning for ideas. I like to look for hammers for example so I have a PCF to Scan them out. This usually generates a lot of charts so I need to have enough time (although adding a volume filter would probably help).

    Check http://www.tradeon.com/, they have a ton of systems, pcfs, scans you name it. You can always find something close to what you need and modify it a bit to adapt it to your style.

    Good luck!

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