Monthly Archives: November 2006

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Lessons learned on TSN

Here is what I learned going over my TSN trade from earlier this month:

  1. Keep your horizon to a size you can manage and try not lose track of current setups
  2. Do not completely discard an idea because you have to get out now protect your assets. Hit the sidelines but keep watching.

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Technical Screens for 11/14/06

Never got around to really looking at those yesterday. Today should be better. Here are the lists for today.

Golden cross between the 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average.

BIIB, DSL, GMT, GR, HDY, HIS, IYT, JBK, KMR, MPX, NBG, RCL, SBW, TRK, TS, XKP

Death cross between the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average:

GDI, HTI, PNP, TRI, TX

Technical Screens for 11/13/06

I know I have been pretty quiet recently. Work is insane for one and, as my previous posts have shown, my trading has been horrible. I am not changing anything per say but I am reviewing and scrutinizing everything I do a lot more.

I am trying some screens, all technical, to try and come up with a short watchlist of charts to look at in the morning. The trouble is, my skills analyzing charts need polishing, which means I cannot have a very long list otherwise I will spend all day trying to read the darn charts and I will not get anything done. So the screens may change as I try different versions.

Here are text files for those importing in trading apps: Death Cross MA 50/200 and Golden Cross MA 50/200.

Golden cross between the 50-day moving average and 200-day moving average.

AIR, EMG, IBB, ISO, JNPR, KF, LG, MDP, MMC, MPT, MTA, NDE, NUF, PCH, PMD, ROH, SFE, SPP, TIF, VCF, VMO, WWY

Death cross between the 50-day moving average and the 200-day moving average:

GB, IOT, NNF, PNP, SBK

MyMoneyBlog Contest

Referred there by Maoxian who was referred by Ugly, I visited MyMoneyBlog today and found it very interesting. Tons of information for anyone who deals with personal finance (and if you don’t, you either have too much money or you should).

I loved the post on using 0% APR from credit cards company.  The information in there was well researched, well structured and clearly presented.

Visit the blog and find your favorite post.

Exits on 11/02/2006

Well it has been a very very bad month and I am getting badly beaten up by the market. I am taking a breather for the rest of the week (today and tomorrow) to try and start fresh on Monday. I am learning a thing or two about my system though:

  • I have lost over 20R in October and gained almost nothing (about 2 1/4 R).
  • my win ratio is down below 40% but my average wins in $ is still double my average loss which helps.
  • so even though picking winners has been a complete failure, risk management has prevented me from going down in flames.

I guess that’s why STOP-LOSS is an appropriate title for this blog. Speaking of which, another title hit the limit today:

Type Sym Date/Price In Date/Price Out R-Mult
TSN 10/30/2006@14.54 11/02/2006@14.22 -0.19R

CROX, Crocs Inc

Today Wallstrip looks at CROX, the makers of the ugly rubber/foam shoes. Like others before, CROX is obviously a fad. That does not mean the growth on the price is not real it just means to be really careful and watch for reversal on the trend. This price could be very sensitive to any form of bad news.

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AEOS, American Eagle Outfitter

Today’s show on Wallstrip was on AEOS or American Eagle Outfitter. You can visit Wallstrip Conversations for more discussions. I LOVED the comment about AEOS being like Abercrombie (ANF) for poor people.

I wanted to post this so much earlier but work got in the way and I had to keep my priorities straight. So in case this is still of interest, here is what I think of the AEOS chart.

AEOS on 11/01/06

First, I own no AEOS and have no plan on getting in soon. This chart shows about a year of daily data for AEOS. We can see a nice uptrend spanning from December of 2005 to about mid-May of 2006. Than the price started trading in range for a consolidation period from mid-May to early August 2006. In early August in broke upwards again and resumed the uptrend from earlier in the year.

In the last couple of days, we have seen the growth slow down significantly and just like at the previous consolidation phase, both the OBV and the MACD curves have started trending down. I would think that AEOS should start trading range for a little bit, if it finds comfortable support and resistance levels. How it behaves in the range will determine whether it will break the range in a up or down trend.

So if I was riding the previous trend, I would be looking for exits soon. If I wanted to trade Eagle Outfitter in range, I would wait for the price to drop and find support. To trade the next trend, someone would have to wait for the consolidation to be over and decide from there if long or short is a better choice.

Exits on 11/01/2006

Again, the market takes a dip and a bunch of my stop-loss orders trigger:

Type Sym Date/Price In Date/Price Out R-Mult
ET 10/26/2006@23.29 11/01/2006@23.19 -0.19R
PBNY 10/30/2006@14.01 11/01/2006@13.92 -0.56R
ULTI 10/30/2006@24.24 11/01/2006@24.16 -0.27R
SFE 10/31/2006@2.44 11/01/2006@2.35 -0.42R