Category Archives: Uncategorized

Trades for 9/13/06

Another one hits the stop. Again, I have a lot less positions open than I would like but my day job is keeping me busy which leaves me less time to follow my setups.

But overall, I am happy to finaly have a system that does not drain my account if it does not get constant attention. It make a lot less money than it could make but it doesn’t drain me either.

I like those trailing stops I have now and I like them very tight. Hitting a stop use to be somewhat of a negative event. With very wide stops, it usualy meant losing money. With my stops very close and moved in the direction of the trade every day, it locks in the profit and, like today, still leaves me with in the green instead and hitting me with a loss. I may be missing out on the biggest rally CHD will every see but atleast, that profit is in my pocket now and protected from the biggest drop CHD has ever seen.

Type Sym Date-in Price-in Date-out Price-out R-Mult
CHD 08/30/2006 37.87 09/13/2006 38.50 1.46

Trades for 9/11/06

Closed one more trade today, one who hit a stop order. I have very few positions left open. I stayed quiet this minutes as I was not sure how the market would react with all the minutes of silence for September 11th here and there.

I plan on looking for a few more good swing candidates tomorrow morning, from about 10am onwards.

Type Sym Date-in Price-in Date-out Price-out R-Mult
CCBL 09/07/2006 8.00 09/11/2006 7.20 -1.08R

NMTI surprise

I was watching NMTI from 8/21/08 and thought it looked like a classic swing between channels. It was coming down towards the EMA line from the upper channel, the Stochastics was turning up and crossing, giving a buy signal. I was ready to get in when NMTI crossed 11.50, which it did. It did work out very well since I sold NMTI yesterday at 14.15, a good 7.69R trade for me. Of course, all this had absolutly nothing to do with technical analysis and everything to do with the announcement on August 31st that NMTI got the big FDA approval they where waiting for to modify the main goal of a study (more on Reuters news). I wonder how many of these I can stumble across by shear luck while using a system that targets something else. Read More …

Trades for 09/07/2006

Trades for today, September 7th 2006:

Type Sym Date-in Price-in Date-out Price-out R-Mult
GTE 09/05/2006 0.52 09/07/2006 0.58 1.45R
NMTI 08/28/2006 11.36 09/07/2006 14.15 7.69R
GNSS 08/28/2006 13.39 09/07/2006 12.34 0.60R

Trades for 09/06/2006

I have struggled for quite some time now and tested different of what to post in my blog with regards to my watchlists and my trades. In a ideal world, I would like to post my trade ideas and watchlists early in the morning for everyone to see. The reality of my life is that the list is never ready in time and because I trade only part-time, it would be hard to be consistent.

So for the time being, I will post post-mortem type information, a recap of the trades of the day at night (when applicable). I acknowledge it will be a lot less interesting for the (few) readers but it is the best I can do for now. As time passes, I may find a better way to post a watchlist of sort every morning.

Type Sym Date-in Price-in Date-out Price-out
INT 08/30/2006 36.06 09/06/2006 35.82
  Hit stop on a down day
BID 08/30/2006 27.99 09/06/2006 27.33
  Hit stop on a down day
RAD 09/05/2006 4.26 09/06/2006 4.32
  Hit stop on a down day, saved some profits keeping stop tight

Week Review

The last couple of weeks have worked out pretty well. Again, nothing to write home about but enought to keep my head above water. Of course, the market was pretty quiet so I was somewhat sheltered from heavy movement. I cannot wait to test my trades after Labor Day to see how things workout.

Today is a day off of sort. I will still watch my positions in case an exit pops up (since I have no orders out there to do it for me) but I not looking for anything new to add. I will review my charts and thighten my stops if need be.

August Trades Review

Since august is coming to an end, I decided to take some time this weekend to go over some of my trades this month. I will focus of three of them, two winning and one losing.

The first one is probably my favorite, a winning trade of SCVL opened on 08/08 at 20.85 and closed on 08/21 at 23.96. This is not incredible profits but 3.11/share is nothing to shy away from (for my needs anyway and for a beginner). I also like it because it looks like a classic swing. One negative, my entry could have been a lot lower, looking at the chart now we can see how I got in near the high for the day. An entry under 20 would have been much better. My exit was better but not perfect either, in the upper half of the range for the day.

SCVL trade in Aug 06

Read More …

Closed a few more paper trades

I just closed 4 more paper trades and I re-evaluated my current results. My PnL has just turned green which made me happy. My winning probabiliy is at 44% by my W/L ratio is at 1.23. Using the Kelly Criterion I get K% = 1.21 meaning I should not currently commit more than 1% of my capital in one equity. So in the current conditions, I would need a failry large amount of capital to make money with limited risk. I will try to improve this in the coming weeks.

My ability to paper trade will be limited shortly because my trial to Worden’s TC expires in a couple of days and I am not ready to start paying the subscription yet (I am somewhat stuck in a catch 22). I am not sure what I will do yet as I have some more PCFs and indicators to build. I could probably try to use something cheaper for the moment.

New Triple-Screen setup

Testing new triple-screen setup using pcf’s in TeleChart.

The first filter, look for a positive long term trend using weekly data. The filter looks for a positive slope on the weekly MACD Histogram using:

 

(XAVGC26 - XAVGC12) -
(XAVGC26.4 - XAVGC12.4) > 0
  

The first term represents today MACD bar and the second, the MACD bar 5 days ago. I need the difference between the two to be positive to find bullish long-term trends.  

The second filter, looks a daily data and uses the Elder’s Force Index. If the FI turns negative on an uptrend day, it may be a buying opportunity. The formula looks like:

 

((((V*(C-C1))+(V1*(C1-C2)))/2) < 0) AND ((((V1*(C1-C2))+(V2*(C2-C3)))/2) > 0)
  

The first term indicates a negative FI for the current day. The second term indicates a positive FI value prior to that. Additional positive days could be added also.  

This is setup in one Scan which run at night after the market closes, generating a list of stocks with bullish long-term trends but with a daily downtrend. I weed out some of the less interesting ideas by taking out low volume instruments using another pcf:

 

(AVGV126 > 1000) AND
(V > AVGV63)
  

During the following trading day, I simply have to look in that list for intraday breakouts on any of those stocks. I setup another pcf which looks at the current price and compares it to yesterday’s high.  

 

C > H1
  

If try, I have my third buy signal. TC2007 is not the right tool for the third scan, a limit order directly with the broker would work best or any other realtime market scanner but I am currently paper trading so I run this other scan to find ideas.  

This is my first test on a triple-screen. I plan on setting up various triples using different indicators and comparing results.