Category Archives: Uncategorized

The Writer Who Couldn’t Read : NPR

Interesting (animated) story of Howard Engel, the writer who could not read.

Khan Academy

I don’t know how I didn’t find out about this sooner but this guy is just awesome. His videos are short and clear and focus on one topic at a time. He has thousands of videos by now covering all sorts of topics, from kindergarten level all the way to advanced math, chemistry and physics.

Hello world!

Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!

Relay for Life 2008

Dear blog readers,

I almost never post anything NOT stock market related on this blog but once a year, I allow myself this one, to support our local efforts at the Relay For Life organized by the American Cancer Society.

Because we truly believe we can make a difference and because last year was not only a success but also a great time, my wife and I have again decided to repeat the team experience in our local “Relay for Life” on Friday May 30th 2008.

Relay For Life is an overnight event that brings our community together to help support the American Cancer Society and its lifesaving mission to eliminate cancer as a major health problem.

We invite you and your children to join ours or any other team and walk with us on May 30th. If you can’t join us, please visit the site and make a donation to support our efforts. The ACS website lists all the relays by zip code if you want to try and find one in your area. Either way, you will make a real difference in the lives of people facing cancer – and in the lives of the people who love them. Thank you!

For state fundraising notices and the American Cancer Society’s Privacy Policy.

Click here to visit my personal page.

Click here to view the team page for Team Kibou (hope in Japanese)

Contemplating long TYC

Contemplating long action on TYC. It formed a nice base in early Feb, which is a trend qualifier and the ADX/DMI is indicating an uptrend getting stronger. In an ideal world, volume would pickup (it is right now too low to support the move, lower than the late January move) and the ADX would cross over 30. I had put a note to pick this one up over 42.50 on 3/6, it crossed 7 or 8 days later but I completely missed it and it of course printed a nice 7-8 bars of gains. It could still be an attractive long.

Pre-market 3/4/08

Futures are down this morning which means the downtrend from last week will now fully resume after the short break yesterday. Considering what happened yesterday, I will still keep an eye for the bulls to try and bounce it back by 10:15am-10:30am. Either way it will be an interesting day to watch.

I will be watching the charts closely, to see if we are indeed reaching new lows at this would be the clear sign that we are still in serious long-term downtrend and not out of it yet.

S&P 500

-10.40

1321.50

3/4 8:11am

NASDAQ

-15.00

1721.75

3/4 8:09am

Dow Jones

-83.00

12169.00

3/4 8:09am

from <http://money.cnn.com/data/premarket/index.html>

 
 

  

Intermediate

Short-term

Dow

Sideways

Sideways

NASDAQ

Sideways

Sideways

S&P

Sideways

Sideways

 
 

 
 

Overall a positive behavior of the down. The bulls showed resilience and nobody gave up. The bears clearly lacked conviction and could not keep the market down. The daily chart formed a clear hammer but on very low volume. This should rebound back up but a lot of people are on the sidelines waiting for something more serious.

The 15-minute chart shows the range bound trading for the day. Market opened down but we saw a clear bounce back midday. Things dwindled down again but the bull came back last hour of trading. Both rebounds show more buying volume then volume on the selling periods. The bulls look a little more serious.

The NASDAQ is also down outside the triangle I was tracking last couple of weeks.

The 15-minute chart is similar to the Dow chart. Range trading a little on the down side. Because the up spikes have strong volume, I will consider the short-term sideways for now.

 
 

 
 


  

Like on the Dow, the S&P traced somewhat of a hammer today. It could indicate the end of the 3 consecutive down days for now. Since we broke out the triangle, I may have to simply revert to tracking this as range rebound and not asa wedge.

Range trading with two strong uptrends, one mid-day and one end-of-day. Bulls have definitely not given up yet.

 
 

 Happy trading!

CEF another good “dip trip”

My trades are not always good, far from it. I am still a serious student when it comes to the market. But sometimes I get success, not only because I made money on the trades but because I followed my plan and it paid off. Sometimes, I get very happy getting stopped out of my trade and seeing the price drop further. Even if I lost money, I have the satisfaction of knowing I could have lost a lot more and I am happy my system worked.

In this case, it was actually a good trade though. This was my second successful attempt trading a dip trip. The daily chart had showed a nice uptrend from mid-January to early February. I picked CEF on my list half-way through the drop. I waited for a decent entry signal which came in the form of a gap open on 2/6 with a MACD crossover and several other indicators. This was all happing right around the 50-60% pullback mark on the Fibonacci grid. My order was ready overnight on 2/5 so I was stopped in pretty early on, giving me a good entry for once. This allowed me ride the down movement on 2/6 not too worried about the outcome.


After getting in, I rode the uptrend as much as I could. My stop was following closely with the price-action and I was eventually stopped out. At first, I thought it was a premature exit and the high open the next day got me worried. But it turned out to be an an exhaustion move and the prices declined quickly after. So I missed some of the price at the entry and some at the exit but overall, I covered quite a bit of movement on the trend and I am very happy with this trade overwall: good entry, good exit and the system worked as expected.


These encouraging charts keep me coming back for more.

  

Stops too wide and target too high

Recent KTC chartI don’t know if it’s worsened by the current market conditions and the really high volatility but I really feel like my stops are way too wide and my targets are too high. Look at this chart of a “successful” KTC trade(1), I noticed my stop could have been much tighter.

After analyzing several of my trades, I worry that my stop is way too wide. I was originally setting it much tighter but was getting annoyed seeing trends resume after I was stopped out and missing out on profits. But bottom line is my gains are fairly small, points wise, on each trade. If I only make as much as I risk on every trade, I am saying I can consistently make more winning trades than losing ones. Since I know this is not always the case and at times, I have only 40% winning trades, I might as well bring up my stop level to say 3%. Since I think I can capture, short-term, price gains of 4-6%, it puts me in place where even with 40% winning trades, I’m ahead of the game since I make more on a winning play than I lose on a losing play.

Those are all concepts I’ve read about over and over again but it’s never as clear until you recongnize them in your own trading.

(1) The chart is provided by StockTickr.com which is a great tool to track performance, adjust risk parameters and journal your trades.

XHB short +1.43

For those wondering what kind of trades I am usually after (not always obvious from some of the horror stories I post), here is a good example:

XHB 11/06/2007

This was a quick short of XHB. Opened the short position on 10/30 at 22.28 and closed it on 11/06 at 20.85. This is only a point on a half but it was a clean trade. I picked up a decent entry point which allowed me to capture a good portion of the downward movement. Granted how don’ t know for sure how much of the move I got because the downward trend could keep going for days but I felt it was a good time for me to get out. The sell volume was dropping, the price was right around the last resistance level and the 2 period RSI was turning up and heading towards 30. Those were all bullish indications which made me take my profits now. Only the next couple of bars will tell if my timing was right or wrong but I am happy with the results.